Business Idea Validation: From Reconnaissance to First Users

The Problem: You Don't Have an Idea, You Have an Illusion

You have an "idea" for a socionics app. Or an online consulting service. Or a freelancer marketplace. Or [insert yours here].

Congratulations — 500 other entrepreneurs have the exact same idea.

Here's what will happen to 499 of them:

• Spend 3-6 months developing the "perfect" MVP
• Invest $700-$4,000 (or time, if they're developers themselves)
• Launch with fanfare on social media
• Get 100 installs (60 of them are friends being polite)
• After a month: 5 active users, 0 paying customers
• Shut down the project and say: "Market wasn't ready" / "Competition too strong" / "Didn't have marketing budget"

The real reason for failure: They built a solution for a problem that nobody considers a problem. Or the problem is real, but their solution sucks. But they learned this after three months of development.

Now the question: do you want to be the 500th or the one who tested the hypothesis in a week and didn't waste six months on a phantom?

This article isn't about "how to make a cool app." It's about how to kill your idea before it kills your time and money. And if the idea survives — then it's worth something.

So what to do? There are several approaches with different time, money, and result reliability costs.

Validation Methods Comparison

Here's the honest table — what it is, how much it costs, and what it actually tests:

Main insight: The more expensive and time-consuming the method — the higher the risk. Start with cheap and fast methods. Move to expensive ones only after confirming the hypothesis.

Recommended sequence:

1. Week 1: Problem interviews (10-15 people) → understand if the problem exists
2. Week 2: Presale or Telegram bot → check if people are willing to use the solution
3. Week 3-4: If first two stages are successful → full MVP development

Let's break down the key methods in detail.

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Method 1: Problem Interviews (If You Know the Audience)

Method Essence

You talk to potential users before writing code. Goal — not to sell the idea, but to understand:

• Does the problem exist that you want to solve?
• How painful is it? Are users ready to pay or look for workarounds?
• How do people solve it now? What alternatives do they use?

How It Works

Step 1: Find 10-15 People from Target Audience

Where to look:

• Topic communities: VK, Telegram channels, Medium, specialized forums
• Friends of friends: ask friends for contacts of people interested in socionics/psychology
• Direct outreach: send private messages to active members of relevant groups (cold messages)

For socionics, suitable options:

• VK groups on socionics (200k+ members across different communities)
• Telegram channels about typing and psychology
• Forums like Socionics.org
• Active members of thematic communities

Ready-made scripts for cold outreach:

For VK:

Hi! Noticed your comments in the socionics group — clear you know the topic.

I'm currently studying what difficulties people face when determining their type. Could you share your experience? Just 3-4 questions, 5 minutes max.

In return, I'll answer any question about [your expertise] or send you a collection of best socionics materials I've gathered.

For Telegram (DM after activity in chat):

@username, I agree with your comment about [specific point from discussion].

By the way, I'm conducting a small study for an article about typing difficulties. You're clearly knowledgeable — can you share your experience? 3-4 short questions.

I'll mention your case in the article (if you want) + send the link when it's published.

For comments in thematic posts:

Great question! I had a similar situation. By the way, I'm collecting stories from people who tried to figure out their type — your case would be very useful. Can I ask a couple questions in DM?

Key points of an effective script:

1. Personalization: Mention the person's specific comment/post
2. Low barrier to entry: "5 minutes", "3-4 questions" — not scary to agree
3. Mutual benefit: Offer something in return (expertise, mention, materials)
4. No selling: You're not offering a product, you're researching the problem

Reality: Out of 20 messages, 5-8 people will respond. Of them, 3-5 will agree to a short conversation. This is normal. Write more.

Step 2: Conduct Problem Interview (Not Sales!)

Right approach:

• "Tell me, how do you currently use socionics in your life?"
• "What difficulties do you encounter when typing?"
• "What apps/services have you tried? What didn't you like?"
• "If you had a magic wand, what would you improve in this process?"

Wrong approach:

• "I'm developing a socionics app. Are you interested?" ❌
• "Would you buy an app that determines personality type?" ❌
• "What features would you like to see in the app?" ❌ (this is premature)

Step 3: Look for Patterns

After 10-15 interviews you'll see:

• Recurring pains: "Hard to understand types", "Don't understand how to apply in relationships", "All tests give different results"
• Workarounds: "Reading forums for hours", "Going to paid typologists", "Using multiple apps simultaneously"
• Deal-breakers: factors that will definitely scare users away — "Don't trust automatic tests", "Won't pay for content", "Need offline version without internet"

Pitfalls

1. "The Mom Test"

Rob Fitzpatrick's book describes the main problem: people want to make you feel good. Mom will say your idea is brilliant even if it's not.

How to avoid:

• Don't ask about your solution — ask about their problems
• Don't ask hypothetical questions ("Would you buy?") — ask about past behavior ("When did you last buy something similar?")
• Don't seek confirmation of your idea — look for reasons why it won't work

2. Selection Bias

People willing to spend 30 minutes on a socionics interview — this is not a representative sample. They're already fans. Real audience might be less engaged.

3. Difference Between "Interesting" and "Ready to Pay"

• "Yes, cool idea!" → will download and delete in a day
• "How much? When's release? Give me beta link!" → real interest

Litmus test: Ask at the end: "If I launch MVP in two weeks, will you give me contact for notification?" If they give email/phone — interest is real.

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Method 2: Reconnaissance Testing (When You Have No Customers)

Method Essence

You create a minimum viable product (MVP) in a short time, release it publicly, and watch how people react. Don't ask for feedback — measure actual behavior.

How It Works for Socionics App

Step 1: Define Hypothesis Core

Hypothesis: People want to quickly determine their sociotype and get understandable description with practical recommendations.

MVP Core:

• Short test (10-15 questions) to determine type
• Result card (type + brief description)
• "Share result" button (virality)

What NOT to include at start:

• ❌ Detailed descriptions of 16 types (can add later)
• ❌ Type compatibility (complex logic)
• ❌ Test history (requires auth)
• ❌ Personalized recommendations (ML/AI)

Step 2: Quick MVP in 2-4 Weeks

Tech stack for speed:

• Frontend: React Native / Flutter (one codebase for iOS + Android)
• Backend: Firebase / Supabase (BaaS — Backend-as-a-Service, ready backend without writing API from scratch)
• Test: Google Forms / Typeform (embed via WebView) or hardcode
• Analytics: Google Analytics / Firebase Analytics (free, out of the box)

Alternatives without mobile app (even faster):

• Telegram bot — fastest to launch, easier to distribute on social media
• Web app (PWA) — works on all devices, no store installation needed
• No-code platforms: Tilda + Airtable / Google Sheets (for simple scenarios), Bubble.io (for complex logic)

Step 3: Launch and Distribution

Where to post:

1. Social platforms:

   • Reddit: r/Socionics, r/MBTI, r/typology (English-speaking audience)
   • Facebook: groups on socionics, psychology, self-development
   • Discord: servers dedicated to personality typing
   • Product Hunt: for first wave of early adopters

2. Stores and catalogs:

   • App Store / Google Play — if mobile app
   • Bot directories: BotList, TopBots (for Telegram bots)

3. Personal channels:

   • Your social media profile (if you have audience)
   • Posts in relevant communities (negotiate with admins)
   • Thematic forums and sites

Right pitch:

• ❌ "Made an app, rate the idea!"
• ✅ "Free sociotype test in 5 minutes. Tried new typing approach — interested in your opinion!"

People don't want to "rate ideas" (that's work). They want value. Give it immediately.

Step 4: Collecting Metrics and Feedback

Key metrics to track:

• Installs / visits → how many entered
• Test completion → how many finished (conversion rate)
• Time in app → does content hold attention
• Returns → do they open repeatedly (retention)
• Sharing → do they share results (virality)

Feedback collection methods:

1. Direct question at the end: "What did you like most?" + form (2-3 questions max)
2. "Leave feedback" button → leads to Telegram / email / Google Forms
3. Comment monitoring → in posts where you shared link
4. Personal messages → write to first 20-30 users (if you have contacts)

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Feedback Collection: Best Practices

1. In-App Feedback

When to show:

• ✅ After test completion: "Help improve the app" + 3 questions
• ✅ After 3-5 days of use (if retention exists)
• ❌ On first launch (people haven't understood value yet)

Format:

• Simple 1-5 scale: "How accurate was the result?"
• One open question: "What would you add first?"
• NPS (Net Promoter Score): "Would you recommend to friends?" (0-10)

2. Personal Outreach

Most valuable feedback comes from one-on-one conversations.

Who to write:

• Active users (took test multiple times)
• Those who shared results
• Those who left short review ("Cool!") — develop dialogue

Message template:

Hi! Noticed you tried [app name]. Thank you!

I'm the developer, currently gathering feedback. Can you share impressions? Just 2-3 minutes.

Especially interested in:

• How accurate was the result?
• What was missing?

For feedback I'll give early access to new features 🙂

3. Public Feedback (Social Media)

Formats:

• Poll post: "What to add in next version?" + answer options
• Stories: Quick polls through Instagram/Telegram
• AMA (Ask Me Anything): "App developer answers questions" in thematic chat

Pros: Many answers quickly, see general trends

Cons: Surface-level answers, hard to dig into reasons

4. Behavior Analytics (Silent Feedback)

People lie with words but tell truth with actions. Track:

• Where does conversion drop? If 80% don't finish test — it's too long
• Which screens viewed longest? That's where value is
• Where do users come from? Double efforts on successful channels
• When do they uninstall? If in first 24 hours — didn't hook them

Tools:

• Analytics: Google Analytics (free for start), Mixpanel, Amplitude
• Heatmaps: Hotjar (click maps, session recordings), Microsoft Clarity (free)
• Errors: Sentry (bug monitoring), Firebase Crashlytics

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Alternative MVP Approaches (Besides App)

1. Presale — The Most Honest Test

Essence: Try to sell a product that doesn't exist yet. If people are ready to pay now for a future solution — the problem is real and painful.

How it works for socionics app:

1. Create landing with future app description:

   • "Personalized socionics typing with AI analysis"
   • "Detailed career, relationships, self-development recommendations"
   • "Launch in 4 weeks"

2. Offer discounted preorder:

   • "Preorder: $4 (instead of $8 after launch)"
   • "Bonus: 30-minute consultation with socionics expert"
   • "Money-back guarantee if you don't like it"

3. Watch actions, not words:

   • People subscribed to newsletter → weak interest
   • People left email "for notification" → politeness
   • People pulled out card and paid → this is validation

Success thresholds:

• 10+ preorders in first week (no ads, organic only) → strong signal
• 50+ preorders in a month → can start development
• 0-5 preorders → problem isn't painful enough or solution doesn't hook

Alternative without payment (softer but less honest):

Instead of money, request invitation to closed beta:

• "Leave phone — we'll invite you first (only 100 spots)"
• Then call/write these people: "Beta ready, install"
• If out of 100 only 5 installed — interest was fake

Pros:

• Most honest hypothesis test (money doesn't lie)
• Get startup capital for development
• Form early adopter base you can sell to next

Cons:

• Need to know how to sell (write convincing copy, make landings)
• Legal obligations (refund if you don't deliver)
• Works only for problems people are willing to pay to solve

When to use: If your product is paid or can be paid. For free apps with ad monetization — doesn't work.

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2. Landing Page + Email List (Smoke Test)

Essence: Create landing with future app description, collect emails of those wanting launch notification.

Pros:

• Fast (1-3 days for landing)
• Measure interest before writing code
• No obligations to users

Cons:

• Doesn't test actual usage
• Email subscription ≠ willingness to use product
• People subscribe easily but 80% forget about you in a week

Tools:

• Landing: Tilda (popular in Russia), Webflow, Carrd
• Contact collection: Mailchimp, ConvertKit, SendPulse
• CRM for early adopters: HubSpot (free tier), Airtable

Success metrics:

• Landing → subscription conversion >5% — strong interest signal
• 100+ subscriptions in a week without ads → problem is real

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3. Wizard of Oz MVP (Manual Backend)

Essence: Users think everything is automated, but actually you do everything manually.

Example for socionics:

• User answers questions
• Result comes in 1-2 hours (supposedly "processing")
• Actually you manually analyze answers and send typing

Pros:

• Don't need complex algorithm from day one
• Quick check if people are willing to wait for result

Cons:

• Doesn't scale (10 users — ok, 1000 — impossible)
• Ethics: need to be honest if it's manual work

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4. Concierge MVP (Personalized Service)

Essence: You provide service manually for first 5-10 clients, diving deep into their request.

Example:

• Instead of app, offer personal sociotype determination consultation (Zoom/Telegram)
• Ask questions, analyze, give detailed answer
• After 10 consultations understand which questions work, which patterns repeat

Pros:

• Deep insight into user problems
• Direct contact → quality feedback

Cons:

• Very time-consuming
• Hard to scale

When to use: If you're unsure about hypothesis and want to understand users as deeply as possible.

5. No-code MVP (Quick Prototype Without Programming)

Essence: Assemble working prototype from ready blocks without writing code. Ideal for quick validation.

Examples for socionics test:

Option 1: Tilda + Google Forms + Telegram

• Landing on Tilda with test description
• Google Forms for questions
• Results come in Telegram bot (via Zapier/Make.com or manually)
• Creation time: 1-3 days

Option 2: Notion + Telegram bot (no-code)

• Knowledge base in Notion with personality types
• Bot on constructor platform (e.g., Botmother.com, SendPulse)
• Logic through buttons and branches
• Creation time: 2-5 days

Option 3: Airtable + Softr (full web app)

• Database in Airtable (types, questions, user results)
• Frontend via Softr (generates interface from Airtable)
• Built-in analytics and forms
• Creation time: 3-7 days

Pros:

• Maximum speed (days, not weeks)
• No programming skills needed
• Easy to change logic and design

Cons:

• Platform limitations (can't implement everything)
• Paid subscriptions after exceeding limits
• Hard to scale (with growth need to rewrite)

When to use: For very first idea check, if you're not a developer or want to save time on MVP.

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Result Interpretation: When to Move Forward?

Numbers don't lie. Here are specific thresholds that distinguish successful validation from self-deception.

Benchmark Success Metrics (First Month)

If you launched MVP (app/bot/web-service), here are minimum indicators to continue:

Key metrics:

What these numbers mean:

• Completion rate < 40% → test too long, boring or confusing. People quit midway.
• Day 1 retention < 20% → didn't hook. Opened, looked and forgot.
• Day 7 retention < 10% → no habit of returning. Product didn't integrate into user's life.
• Organic virality < 0.1 → nobody shares. No WOW effect.
• NPS < 10 → people don't see value to recommend to others.

Positive Signals (Continue Developing Product)

✅ Organic growth: People share app without your request (virality >0.3)

✅ Repeated use: 20%+ return in a week (Day 7 retention >20%)

✅ Active feature requests: "When will you add type compatibility?" → people see value and want more

✅ Willingness to pay right now: "Make paid version, I'll buy!" — strongest signal

✅ Specific pain: Users describe problem you solve: "Finally figured out types, all tests gave different results"

✅ High NPS: 40%+ ready to recommend to friends

Negative Signals (Should Reconsider Idea)

❌ Low completion rate: Less than 30% finish test → doesn't hook

❌ Zero virality: Nobody shares → no WOW effect

❌ No feedback even after requests: Means product didn't hook enough to spend time

❌ "Interesting, but...": The word "but" means value is insufficient

❌ Single installs after publication: If even in thematic groups there's no interest → problem doesn't resonate

Ambiguous Signals (Need to Dig Deeper)

⚠️ Average retention: 10-15% return → there's a hook but not strong enough

⚠️ Contradictory feedback: Some want more questions, others — fewer → audience segmentation

⚠️ High interest but low usage: Install but don't launch → onboarding problem

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7-Day Challenge: Kill Your Idea or Prove It's Alive

Stop reading. Here's a specific plan that will either save you from 6 months of wasted time or give green light for development.

Day 1-2: Formulate Killer Hypothesis

Task: Create hypothesis that can be refuted with numbers.

❌ Bad hypothesis: "People are interested in socionics"

✅ Good hypothesis: "Minimum 30% of landing visitors will leave email to get socionics test"

Concrete actions:

1. Describe problem in one sentence (not solution, problem!)
2. Formulate hypothesis with specific metric
3. Define failure threshold (if less than X — idea is dead)

Success criterion: You have hypothesis that can be killed in a week.

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Day 3-4: Create Killer Landing or Telegram Bot

Task: Not "beautiful landing" but maximally simple MVP that will either confirm or destroy your belief in the idea.

Option A (for paid products): Landing with presale

• Describe future product
• Button "Preorder $4 (instead of $8 after launch)"
• Money-back guarantee

Option B (for free products): Telegram bot with test

• 10-15 questions
• Immediate result
• "Share result" button

Tools: Tilda (landing in 2 hours), SendPulse/Botmother (bot in a day)

Success criterion: You have working link you can send to people right now.

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Day 5-6: Bring 200 Target Visitors

Task: Get minimum sample for statistically significant result.

Free channels ($0):

1. Post in 5-10 thematic groups on Reddit/Facebook/Discord
2. Write 20 people from target audience in DM (use scripts from article)
3. Post on relevant forums with valuable content + link

Paid channels ($30-$50):

1. Facebook ads targeting "socionics", "psychology" interests (100-200 clicks)
2. Post with thematic blogger in Telegram channel (negotiate for $20-$40)

Success criterion: 200 unique visitors or users in 2 days.

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Day 7: Count and Decide

Task: Honestly look at numbers and make decision.

For landing with presale:

• >10 preorders → strong signal, start development
• 3-10 preorders → interest exists but weak. Test other channels
• 0-2 preorders → idea is dead. Either problem not painful or solution doesn't hook

For Telegram bot:

• Completion rate >60% + >20% share result → continue
• Completion rate 40-60% → there's a hook, improve test
• Completion rate <40% → doesn't hook, change approach or bury idea

Success criterion: You have clear decision based on numbers, not emotions.

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What to Do After 7 Days?

If hypothesis confirmed (>threshold values):

1. Collect feedback from first users (10-20 interviews)
2. Define next hypothesis (monetization, retention, virality)
3. Start full MVP development

If hypothesis failed (<threshold values):

1. Don't deceive yourself. "Need to wait" / "Need more marketing" — this is self-deception
2. Analyze: is problem in product or is there no problem at all?
3. Either pivot (change approach) or bury idea and move to next

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Main Validation Mistakes

1. Asking What People Want

Henry Ford: "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said: faster horses."

Right way: Ask about current problems and observe behavior.

2. Validating Idea, Not Problem

You fall in love with your solution and seek confirmation it's brilliant. But the problem matters, not your version of solution.

Right way: Validate problem first, then — does your solution fit.

3. Listening to Everyone Equally

Socionics enthusiast opinion ≠ casual user opinion ≠ paying customer opinion.

Right way: Weight feedback by audience engagement.

4. Making MVP Too Complex

"Let's immediately make 16 types + compatibility + recommendations + chat + monetization + integrations..."

Right way: One screen, one function, one success metric.

5. Not Measuring Results

Without analytics you're blind. "Seems people like it" — not a metric.

Right way: Retention, completion rate, NPS, conversion — everything measured from day one.

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Final Conclusions: Three Rules That Will Save You from Failure

1. Money Doesn't Lie. Words Do.

"I would buy" = politeness.

"How much? Where to pay?" = validation.

Use presale, even if unsure you'll make the product. Better to return money to 10 people than spend half a year developing for 0 users.

2. Quickly Burying Bad Ideas Is a Skill, Not Failure.

If in 7 days your idea didn't gather at least minimum interest (10 preorders, 60% completion rate, 0.3 k-factor) — stop.

Don't look for excuses: "Too little time", "Wrong channels", "Need to wait". Bad ideas don't become good from waiting.

Bury 10 bad ideas in 70 days = more chances to find one that works than spending 6 months on one failed one.

3. Validate Problem, Not Your Ego.

You're not checking if your idea is brilliant. You're checking if problem is painful enough for people to change their behavior or pay.

If problem is real — solutions can be ten. Your first solution is probably crap. But that's normal.

Don't fall in love with idea. Fall in love with problem. Idea can change 10 times, but if problem is real — you'll find way to solve it.

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Main point:

You don't know if product is needed until someone real says: "Damn, where was this before?!" or "How much does it cost?".

Until that moment you don't have business. You have hypothesis. And your task is to kill it as quickly as possible. If it survives — it's worth something.

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Want to discuss validating your idea or need help with quick MVP? Contact me — we'll analyze your hypothesis and find fastest way to test it in 7 days.